Post-Election Commentary

 

Almost two years of a brutal presidential political campaign has finally produced a winner: Washington outsider, reality TV show host, erratic Donald Trump.

Mr. Trump pulled off the comeback of a lifetime and won against all odds on a wave of populism and a vague platform of anti-trade policies, anti-immigration and fiscal stimulus.  Aside from the emotional responses that such an upset has produced around the country (whether you voted for him of against him), what should we be expecting from his presidency as investors?

Judging his acceptance speech, there is some hope that there will be differences between campaigner Trump and President Trump. A more pragmatic approach may be put in play as the new President will have to negotiate with a Congress that while under Republican majority still counts a large number of more moderate and/or fiscally conservative members.

Over the course of the next four years, it is reasonable to expect a mix of policies that should be relatively inflationary making long duration bonds generally unattractive.  Pipelines and infrastructure companies should benefit from fiscal policy and some level of deregulation.  As reflected already by today’s market action, pharmaceuticals should also benefit as much less pressure will be applied on their pricing mechanism than it would have occurred under a Clinton’s administration.

Commercial real estate (CRE) should offer inflation protection, especially as long as the general economy progresses in positive terms. The only caveat on this sector might be how the Federal Reserve will respond to such potentially inflationary policies.  If the Fed continues to take a cautious stance toward rising rates, CRE will do just fine. On the other hand, should the Fed implement a heavy hand, performance from the sector might be underwhelming.

Naturally, as previously mentioned, all this presumes a pragmatic President and not the erratic character we all experienced on the campaign trail.